Gravita India Ltd - Jan 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Analysis

  ·   6 min read

Earnings Call Transcript Analysis Report #

Gravita India Limited Q3 FY25 Earnings Call Analysis #

Financial Performance #

Key Financial Metrics #

  • Consolidated Revenue (9M FY25): INR 2,832 crores (up 23% YoY)
  • Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA (9M FY25): INR 295 crores (up 18% YoY)
  • EBITDA Margin (9M FY25): 10.4%
  • Consolidated PAT (9M FY25): INR 217 crores (up 28% YoY)
  • PAT Margin (9M FY25): 7.7%
  • Consolidated Revenue (Q3 FY25): INR 996 crores (up 31% YoY, up 7% QoQ)
  • Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA (Q3 FY25): INR 102 crores (up 14% YoY)
  • EBITDA Margin (Q3 FY25): 10.3%
  • Consolidated PAT (Q3 FY25): INR 78 crores (up 29% YoY)
  • PAT Margin (Q3 FY25): 7.8%
  • Revenue from value added products: 46%

Comparison with Previous Periods #

  • Revenue, EBITDA, and PAT all showed significant YoY growth for both the 9-month period and Q3. QoQ revenue growth was also positive.
  • Volume for lead, plastic and aluminium increased by 27%, 33% and 92% YoY, respectively.

Revised Guidance/Forecasts #

  • EBITDA per ton for lead is expected to remain stable at INR 18-19.
  • Aluminium margin guidance of INR 14 per kg
  • Plastic margin guidance of INR 10 per kg

Areas of Growth/Decline #

  • Strong volume growth across all segments (Lead, Plastic, Aluminium). Aluminium showed particularly strong growth (92% YoY).
  • Domestic scrap sourcing increased significantly (50% YoY).
  • Stand-alone EBITDA margins, excluding other income, dropped from 8.1% Q3FY24 TO 5.6% Q3FY25

Strategic Initiatives & Business Updates #

Major Strategic Announcements #

  • Raised INR 1,000 crores through QIP for growth initiatives.
  • Increased stake in Navam Lanka Limited to 100%.
  • Commenced commercial production of recycled aluminium alloys at a new facility in Ghana.

New Products/Services/Markets #

  • Pilot project for lithium-ion recycling.
  • New rubber recycling plant in Mundra, India.
  • Evaluating to acquire an existing plan in the Gulf region
  • Expecting a license to establish in Dominican Republic by H1 FY26
  • Acquired a rubber recycling unit in Romania, transaction to be completed by Q4

Operational Changes #

  • Increased focus on domestic scrap sourcing due to government regulations (BWMR and EPR).
  • Debt to be at Zero by end of Year

Ongoing/Completed Projects #

  • Ghana aluminium recycling facility (Phase 1 operational).
  • Mundra projects (lithium-ion and rubber recycling) on track for H1 FY26.
  • Capacity expansion to exceed 5 lakh metric tons by FY27

Market & Competitive Landscape #

  • Positive impact of government regulations (BWMR, EPR, RCM) on scrap availability.
  • Shift from unorganized to organized sector in battery recycling.
  • Quality Control Order (QCO) implemented for aluminium alloy.

Competitive Positioning #

  • Focus on maintaining market share in the domestic market despite increased competition.
  • Pan-India presence provides a logistical advantage.

Market Challenges/Opportunities #

  • Opportunity to increase domestic scrap sourcing.
  • MCX aluminum listing is delayed but expected.

Market Share/Positioning #

  • Aiming to maintain or increase market share in the domestic battery scrap market.
  • Expect 3x increase in domestic battery scrap in 2-3 years

Risk Factors & Challenges #

Concerns/Challenges #

  • Global economic slowdown impacting the metal sector.
  • Potential shipping cost fluctuations.
  • Geopolitical risks in operating countries (Sri Lanka, Mozambique).
  • Risk if Government bans import of battery scrap into India
  • New tech could make lead acid batteries obsolete

Regulatory Issues #

  • Reverse Charge Mechanism (RCM) in GST for battery scrap is pending due to a technicality (HSN code).
  • ELV policy to be active from April 1st 2025

Supply Chain/Operational Constraints #

  • Transit time and LME fluctuations impact aluminium profitability (until hedging is in place).

Market Uncertainties #

  • Uncertainty around the timing and impact of RCM on plastic scrap.

Forward-Looking Statements #

Outlook/Projections #

  • Volume CAGR of 25%+ and profitability growth of 35%+ (Vision 2028).
  • ROIC over 25%.
  • Non-lead business share to 30%+.
  • 30%+ renewable energy use and 10% reduction in energy consumption.
  • Debt is expected to be close to 0 at year end

Commitments/Targets #

  • Capacity expansion to exceed 5 lakh metric tons per annum by FY27.
  • Increasing value-added product revenue to 50% (Vision 2028).
  • Return on Invested Capital would be higher than 25%

Planned Investments/Priorities #

  • Strategic utilization of QIP proceeds for capacity expansion and new verticals.
  • Exploring M&A opportunities.
  • INR 2,500 crores of inflow in the next 3 years, including INR 1,000 of QIP
  • INR 1,500 crores to be used for expansion, INR 1,000 for working capital

Sentiment about Future Performance #

  • Confident about achieving growth targets due to regulatory tailwinds, expansion plans, and diversification strategy.

Q&A Insights #

Most Pressing Analyst Questions #

  • Sustainability of EBITDA margins.
  • Commissioning timelines for Mundra projects.
  • Status of Oman expansion and other overseas projects.
  • Update on RCM for battery scrap.
  • Utilization of QIP proceeds.
  • Aluminium volume and margin fluctuations.
  • Impact of competition from battery manufacturers setting up recycling units.
  • Outlook on Domestic Polices
  • Debt Levels

Management Responses #

  • Provided clear timelines and capacity figures for Mundra.
  • Explained the delay in aluminium hedging and its impact on margins.
  • Detailed the progress on RCM and its expected impact.
  • Reiterated confidence in growth targets and provided supporting rationale.
  • Addressed concerns about competition and outlined mitigation strategies.

Evasive/Indirect Answers #

  • Did not disclose specific companies targeted for M&A.

New Information Revealed #

  • Detailed breakdown of scrap sourcing (domestic, imported, overseas for overseas centers).
  • Confirmation of exploring PET recycling opportunity.
  • Elaboration on the ELV policy and its potential impact.
  • Explanation of the foreign currency translation reserve line item in the P&L.
  • Total inflow of INR 2,500 crores, INR 1,500 for capex

Management Tone & Sentiment #

Overall Tone #

  • Confident and optimistic. Management repeatedly emphasized their strong performance and positive outlook.

Areas of Confidence/Concern #

  • High confidence in achieving growth targets and navigating market challenges.
  • Confident in the impact of regulatory changes.
  • Acknowledged potential risks but presented mitigation strategies.

Summary of Most Important Takeaways #

  1. Strong Financial Performance: Gravita delivered strong financial results with significant YoY growth in revenue, EBITDA, and PAT.
  2. Growth Strategy: The company is pursuing an aggressive growth strategy focused on capacity expansion, diversification into new verticals (lithium-ion, rubber), and geographic expansion.
  3. Regulatory Tailwinds: Government regulations (BWMR, EPR, RCM) are creating favorable conditions for the recycling industry and supporting Gravita’s growth.
  4. Strategic Investments: The QIP proceeds are being strategically utilized to fund growth initiatives, repay debt, and manage working capital.
  5. Positive Outlook: Management is confident in achieving its Vision 2028 targets, including a 25%+ volume CAGR and 35%+ profitability growth. They project strong, continued financial improvement.
  6. Risk Management: Management acknowledges potential risks (geopolitical, shipping costs, competition) but has strategies in place to mitigate them.
  7. Capital Expenditure: Expecting large capital expenditure of up to 2,500 Cr in the next 3 years.